Yet, as we have previously noted, the maritime transportation sector is only now starting on efforts to reduce emissions, with carbon-free commercial shipping expected to enter pilot phases in 2023. a 4% increase by 2025 forecast under the Reference Case Outlook). a 3% increase by 2025 forecast under the Reference Case Outlook), while road transportation emissions would need to decline by 1% (vs. Source: Platts Analytics Future Energy Outlooks Data Effective: August 21, 2021įor example, the electric power industry would need reduce the amount of carbon it puts into the atmosphere annually by 7% by 2025 compared with 2019 levels (vs. As such, an analysis of what needs to change at the sector level can help companies, investors and governments understand where the biggest initial moves are needed.Īlmost all energy, industrial, and transportation sectors would need to have reduced total annual emissions in 2025 compared to 2019 levels, although to varying degree, under the Platts 2-Degree Outlook. View The S&P Global Platts Atlas of Energy Transition > Energy users would also need to take big steps nowĬountries can only make the emissions cuts needed to transition to a low-carbon economy if companies and sectors also change. These emissions would decline slightly less - by 4% - under the 2-Degree Outlook, as gas is needed to offset an accelerated coal phase out and as key end use sectors are electrified. utilities are building new natural gas plants, the model indicates emissions from gas-fired generation would be down 5% under the Platts Reference Case. Most of those natural gas-related emissions gains are linked to emissions from the industrial sector as well as gas used by the energy industry across extraction, processing, refining and liquefaction. is currently on track to increase natural-gas related carbon emissions by about 5% by 2025, the model shows. Rather, on its current trajectory, China is expected to increase its coal-related emissions over the next four years by about 4% due to strong growth in demand for electricity, according to the Platts Reference Case Outlook. curbing natural gas emissions by 2025 appear to be low. Yet the chances of either China reducing emissions from coal or the U.S. Source: Platts Analytics Future Energy Outlooks Data Effective: August 21, 2021 Transportation includes air travel, aviation, commercial road transportation, marine transportation and passenger vehicle transportation. China, on the other hand, with a national ambition to double GDP within the next decade and a half, would only see a 6% decrease in emissions from coal under the Platts 2-Degree Outlook. would need to curb emissions from coal by 22%, natural gas by 11%, and oil by 8% by 2025 from 2019 levels - the year before the COVID-19 pandemic upended the economy. For example, under the 2-Degree Outlook, the world would need to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel combustion by over 50% by 2050, and when those required emissions cuts are modelled at the country level, a varied picture emerges based on the age of the underlying asset base, economic imperatives, and long-term policy targets.įor example, under the 2-Degree assumptions, the U.S. The CO2 emissions cuts needed in the near term are not uniform across all geographies or sectors. Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics and IEA The US must curb natural gas emissions by 2025Ī review of S&P Global Platts Analytics’ Future Energy Outlooks reinforces the idea that near-term action would be required. The second is the more ambitious 2-Degree Outlook, and in the research, we examine how carbon dioxide emissions would need to change across geographies, sectors, and the power supply mix to limit global warming to 2 degrees. The research is based on an analysis of two S&P Global Platts Analytics Future Energy Outlooks: One, the Reference Case, reflects the current state of policies, technologies and markets, as well as expectations on how those factors are most likely to evolve. The latest report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change created an even greater sense of urgency for all parts of the world to start moving now, rather than later, to reach that goal.Įven under a less ambitious scenario in which global warming is limited to 2 degrees C, the world would need to make cuts to fossil-fuel related emissions across multiple sectors by 2025, S&P Global Sustainable1 research finds. Even though most national net zero targets are decades away, the world would need to make significant strides in decarbonizing energy-related emissions within the next four years to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.įor years, scientists have said that limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is crucial to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change.
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